The ongoing disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are exposing the structural vulnerabilities of global agrifood systems, with significant impacts on food security in the Global South. According to SWISSAID, the crisis highlights the heavy dependence of agriculture on fossil fuels, particularly for fertilizer production and transport.
Rising energy prices are already affecting partner countries. In Tanzania, fuel prices have increased by over 33%, while in India, shortages of cooking gas are disrupting households and small businesses. In Chad, food prices have surged dramatically, with meat prices doubling and fuel costs also rising sharply. These dynamics are particularly severe in rural areas, where higher transport costs limit farmers’ access to markets and reduce incomes.
Beyond energy, a fertilizer crisis is emerging. Supply disruptions are occurring at a critical moment in the agricultural calendar, forcing farmers to reduce fertilizer use, switch crops, or abandon planting altogether. In many African countries, where agriculture relies heavily on imported inputs, this is expected to lead to lower yields, reduced incomes, and increased food insecurity.
The World Food Programme estimates that up to 45 million additional people could face food insecurity by the end of 2026 if the crisis persists.
SWISSAID emphasizes that these developments reflect deeper systemic issues, including the concentration of global agricultural inputs and reliance on external supply chains. As a response, the organization promotes agroecological approaches that rely on local resources, improve soil health, and reduce dependency on imported fertilizers and pesticides. Such approaches are presented as key to strengthening resilience and fostering more autonomous and sustainable food systems.
